AFRICA –
RESOURCE WARS – the FACTS
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War
• During the 1990s 5 million people around the world are estimated
to have been killed in conflicts; 6 million fled to neighbouring countries
and a further 11-15 million were internally displaced.1
• In Africa, economic losses due to war are approximately $15 billion
per year.2
• However, since 1990 the world has been significantly safer from
conflicts between nations; the risk of such conflicts was only half as
great during the 1990s as during the Cold War.3
• Between 1989-2001 there have been 115 armed conflicts around the
world, 108 of which were civil conflicts. The most serious of these have
been in Africa.4
Loot
• States dependent on primary resource exports are over 20 times
more likely to suffer a civil war than non-dependent countries.5
• The more that states rely on exporting raw materials, the worse
their standard of living is likely to be. The greater a country’s
level of mineral dependence, the lower its ranking in the Human Development
Index between 1991-98.6
• The more that states rely on mineral exports, the smaller the
share of income that accrues to the poorest 20% of the population.6
• Countries highly dependent on oil and mineral exports are more
vulnerable to economic shocks as prices have grown more volatile since
1970.6
Poverty and resource-dependence: the links6
This table indicates statistically significant links between poor development
indicators and countries’ reliance on mineral and oil exports (controlling
for the influence of per capita GDP).
Resource dependence reduces economic growth:
Negative economic growth in mineral dependent states:4
Estimated revenue from conflict resources, selected cases1
Combatant Resource Period Estimated revenue
UNITA (Angola) diamonds 1992-2001 $4,000 million total
RUF (Sierra Leone) diamonds 1990s $25 - 125 million/year
Charles Taylor (Liberia) timber Late 1990s $100 - 187 million/year
Government of Sudan oil Since 1999 $400 million/year
Government of Rwanda coltan 1999-2000 $250 million total
Forgotten wars
Tens of millions of people are threatened by conflict and violence, but
response to their needs is led by political expediency. Focus on the ‘war
on terror’ has exacerbated the neglect of ongoing humanitarian crises
while wealthy countries are reluctant to commit troops to UN peacekeeping.7
Small but deadly
• The real weapons of mass destruction. 90% of civilian casualties
are caused by small arms. Around the world one person every minute is
killed with conventional weapons. In that same minute, 15 new arms are
manufactured for sale.2
• The firearm stockpile for sub- Saharan Africa (44 countries) is
estimated at less than 30 million firearms.3
• Deadly trade. Despite the relatively small size of the arms market,
the prevalence of weak and non-existent states, rebel movements and endemic
civil violence make the sub-Saharan African gun trade deadly.3
• Smuggling. Illicit and smuggled weapons may rival the number of
legal weapons in sub-Saharan Africa.3 It is estimated that 80-90% of illegal
small arms start off in the legal trade.2 The illegal trade in small arms
could be worth up to $10 billion per year.3
• Small arms. Most small arms sold to sub-Saharan Africa appear
to be cheap, second-hand weapons from sources that are difficult to trace,
mostly originating in Central and Eastern Europe or in Asia. Russia is
a major supplier of small arms to African countries.3
• The big exporters. The world’s most powerful countries are
also the world’s biggest arms suppliers. France, Russia, China,
Britain and the US together account for 88% of the world’s conventional
arms exports. In the last four years the US, Britain and France earned
more income from arms exports to Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin
America than they provided in aid.2 Military spending in sub-Saharan Africa
averages $9.8 billion; in 2001 Angola spent 3.1% of GDP on the military
compared with 2.7% on education; Sierra Leone spends 3.6% of GDP on the
military and 1% on education.10
Human cost
• Since the end of the Cold War, 90% of those killed in conflict
have been non-combatants, compared with 15% at the beginning of the century.11
• Children account for at least half of all civilian casualties.10
• Beyond its direct cost in human lives, conflict can undermine
economies, destabilize governments, damage infrastructure, disrupt social
service delivery and provoke mass movements of people.10
• Forced migration: according to the UNHCR, ‘armed conflict
is now the driving force behind most refugee flows’ as people are
forced to flee their homes. There are some 13 million refugees and asylum-seekers
worldwide – Africa is host to a quarter of them.12
• More than 14 million people face hunger due to present or recent
conflicts globally.10
• Today, as many as 300,000 children under 18 serve in government
forces or armed rebel groups, some as young as eight years old.2
• In some militaries of sub- Saharan Africa more than half the soldiers
are HIV-positive.
1 Michael Renner, ‘The Anatomy of Resource Wars’,
Worldwatch Institute 2002
2 Control Arms campaign media briefing, ‘Key facts and figures’,
www.controlarms.org 9 October 2003
3 Small Arms Survey 2002, 2003, Oxford University Press
4 Michael Ross, ‘Natural Resources and Civil War’, University
of California 2002
5 Paul Collier, ‘Economic Causes of Civil Conflict and their Implications
for Policy’, World Bank, 15 June 2000
6 Michael Ross, ‘ Extractive Industries and the Poor’, Oxfam
America 2001
7 ‘Beyond the Headlines: an agenda to protect civilians in neglected
conflicts’, Oxfam International 2003
8 United Nations Peacekeeping Operations Monthly Summary of Contributors
(military observers, civilian police and troops) as of 31 January 2004.
9 ‘Forgotten Wars: Coverage of wars and conflicts in Africa in International
TV News programmes’, Agenda Setting Newsletter, www.agendasetting.com2003
10 UNDP Human Development Report 2003, Oxford University Press
11 Saferworld (2003) Cost of Conflict, www.saferworld.co.uk/media/stats.htm
12 World Refugee Survey 2003.
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